assignment

Instructions

Download the assignment template from this week’s resources and complete the problems as listed. Show your work (either your hand calculations or your statistical program output). You can either scan your work and submit it as a low-resolution graphic, type your answers directly into the document or copy and paste your work into a Word file.

The completed assignment should address all of the assignment requirements, exhibit evidence of concept knowledge, and demonstrate thoughtful consideration of the content presented in the course.

Week 4 Assignment

 

Use the data in the following table that shows results from a polygraph (lie detector) conducted by researchers Charles R. Honts and Gordon H. Barland. In each case, it was known if the subjects lied or did not lie, so the table indicates when the polygraph was correct.

 

  Did the subject actually lie?
  No (did not lie) Yes (did lie)
The polygraph test indicated that the subject lied. 15 42
The polygraph test indicated that the subject did not lie. 32 9

 

 

 

1. If one of the subjects is randomly selected, find the probability of selecting someone who lied.

2. If one of the subjects is randomly selected, find the probability of selecting someone who did not lie and had a polygraph indication of not lying.

3. If one of the subjects is randomly selected, find the probability of selecting someone who lied or had a polygraph indicative of not lying.

4. If two different subjects are randomly selected without replacement, find the probability that they both lied.

 

5. Use subjective probability to estimate the probability of randomly selecting a subject who did not lie and whose polygraph indicated that he or she did lie.

 

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